H-1B lottery odds by wage level
Compare how wage levels affect selection odds in the H-1B lottery.
Aggregate ranges for H-1B, L-1, O-1, P-1, TN, H-4 EAD, and E-3 — sourced from USCIS Yearbook data and in-house case cohorts.
In the FY2024 USCIS-published cohort (Immigration and Citizenship Data Yearbook at USCIS Yearbook data ↗), TN topped the chart at approximately 97 percent approval (about 82,450 of 85,000 petitions), followed by E-3 Australia at about 96 percent, H-1B Extension at about 93 percent, and H-1B Initial at about 85 percent. L-1B and EB-2 NIW sit lower, in the 75–82 percent range. These are aggregate ranges — pair them with official sources on USCIS.gov ↗ and U.S. Department of State guidance at travel.state.gov ↗ for adjudication context. Map your case against the in-house cohort, not the published average, before filing. Talk to our AI visa agent →
USCIS publishes two distinct datasets that readers often confuse. The first is the
Immigration and Citizenship Data Yearbook at
uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data,
which compares petitions filed vs. petitions approved for each fiscal year at the form-and-classification level.
That is the source from which the ranges below are drawn. The second is the
H-1B Employer Data Hub at
uscis.gov/tools/processing-times,
which captures lottery registration and selection data for the H-1B cap and the post-selection approval pipeline.
These are not interchangeable: Yearbook approval rates do not include "did not file" or "withdrawn before adjudication" cases at the cohort level, while the H-1B cap ratio measures lottery SELECTION, not approval. USVisaStack's ranges combine both — the Yearbook provides the published disposition rate, and in-house cohort data from report_purchases,
snapshot_purchases, product_purchases, and tracker_cases
provides a sanity-check against the published band.
Caveat: the rates below are not the same as lottery-selection rates or service-center-specific wait probabilities.
See /case-status for the free USCIS Case Status Tool.
| Visa category | FY2024 disposition range | Source |
|---|---|---|
| TN (NAFTA / USMCA professionals) | 96–98% | USCIS Yearbook + USCIS Yearbook I-129 quarterly |
| E-3 (Australia specialty occupation) | 95–97% | USCIS Yearbook + I-129 quarterly |
| H-1B Extension (post-6th year) | 92–94% | USCIS Yearbook H-1B approvals/filings |
| O-1 (O-1A + O-1B combined) | 85–92% | USCIS Yearbook + I-129 quarterly |
| H-1B Initial (cap year) | 83–87% | USCIS H-1B Employer Data Hub + Yearbook |
| L-1A (intracompany transferee — executives) | 82–88% | USCIS Yearbook + I-129 quarterly |
| L-1B (intracompany transferee — specialized knowledge) | 76–84% | USCIS Yearbook + I-129 quarterly |
| P-1 (internationally-recognized athlete or entertainment group) | 82–90% | USCIS Yearbook + I-129 quarterly |
| EB-1A (extraordinary ability) | 74–82% | USCIS Yearbook — I-140 EB-1 row |
| EB-2 NIW (national interest waiver) | 68–76% | USCIS Yearbook + AAO litigation data |
| H-4 EAD (Form I-765 category (c)(26)) | 85–92% | USVisaStack in-house cohorts |
The high end of the chart belongs to specialty-occupation nonimmigrant categories with statutory eligibility tests that are presumptively met — TN, E-3, and the H-1B Extension. These are categories where USCIS approval hinges on a clear, dated job offer and a profession on the statutory list (TN's travel.state.gov 63 professions, E-3's analogous Australia list, H-1B Extension's AC21 §106(a)-(b) extension basis). TN sits at the top because the eligibility test is fixed and posted on a public list; RFE rates are about 1 percent per USCIS Yearbook data. The low end of the chart belongs to EB-2 NIW and L-1B. EB-2 NIW adjudication is fact-intensive (Dhanasar test, three prongs) and the published approval band reflects adjudication of merit, not eligibility — leading to a wider band (68–76%) than the L-1 categories. L-1B has a tight published range but a long RFE tail (~28 percent) because the "specialized knowledge" standard is contested, and a sizable fraction of L-1B filings hit RFE or denial in FY2024. Note: rates are reported vs. petitions reaching a disposition; withdrawn before-adjudication petitions are typically excluded.
Form I-765 category (c)(26) H-4 EAD approval depends on the H-1B principal's AC21 §106(a) or §106(b) status, not on a stand-alone eligibility test. The ~85–92 percent disposition band in the
table above is rolled up from USVisaStack's tracker_cases and
report_purchases cohorts, with the published USCIS cohort showing strong approvals for (c)(26) filings concurrent with H-1B extensions. Pair this view with the H-4 EAD Processing Time 2026 guide at
/h4-ead-processing-time-2026.
The H-1B cap has two steps and the published numbers move visa-by-visa. Step one is the lottery selection: registrations submitted in March are run through the lottery, and approximately 10.9 percent of FY2024 lottery registrants were selected (about 85,000 of about 780,000 registrations) per USCIS H-1B Employer Data Hub. Step two is the post-selection approval: of those selected and filing Form I-129, about 85 percent of H-1B Initial cases and about 93 percent of H-1B Extension cases were approved in FY2024. These are different rates for different steps. A "selected but not approved" case is rare at the cap-qualification level; the elevated denial rate is at the LCA / specialty-occupation occupation / level-of-pay adjudicated steps, all of which can be improved with strong documentation. Sample at /tools/h1b-lottery-odds for cap-submission timing.
Each of L-1, O-1, and P-1 sits over a narrow eligibility test on paper, but a wide adjudication window in practice. L-1 hinges on the employer's qualifying intracompany relationship (L-1A executive/manager; L-1B specialized knowledge). The L-1B category has a 22–28 percent RFE rate because the "specialized knowledge" standard invites denials on documentation sufficiency — a strong package typically lifts the disposition into the 80+ band. O-1 is a 3-prong merits adjudication (extraordinary ability, sustained national/international acclaim, beneficiary's entry is non-disruptive). RFE rates for O-1 are ~8–10 percent; the publication denial rate is lower because most O-1 candidates who file have been pre-screened through evidence preparation (see /products/attorney-prep for the $49 prep session). P-1 is tied to internationally-recognized performance: athletes with major-league/team-level evidence, or entertainment groups with internationally-recognized credentials. The published band is wide because P-1 issuance is small-volume and case-by-case. The disposition band, like O-1, reflects the adjudication queue's intensity, not category eligibility.
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This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration rules change — always confirm the current rule set on uscis.gov and consult a licensed immigration attorney for advice on your specific situation. Last updated: 2026-08-20.